WW2 Jewish Holocaust

China’s Foreign Policy towards Taiwan 2020:

Any Change?

KB Teo

SYNOPSIS

Since October 1949, Beijing has maintained the position that Taiwan is a sacred and inalienable part of China.  It is prepared to use force, if necessary. Mao Zedong’s communist forces (CCP) defeated Generalissimo Chiang Kai-Shek’s Kuomintang (KMT) on the mainland.

COMMENTARY

China will not change its position that Taiwan belongs to it, Beijing said on Sunday, after President Tsai Ing-wen won re-election and said she would not submit to China’s threats, as state media warned she was courting disaster, reported Reuters on 17 January 2020.

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Taiwan’s reunification with mainland China was inevitable and, in a rebuke against Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen’s landslide re-election, that separatists would “stink for 10,000 years” reported the SCMP on 17 January 2020.  Tsai, of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won about 57 per cent of the popular vote in the island’s presidential election on the weekend, riding a wave of wariness with Beijing’s intentions after Hong Kong’s months-long anti-government protests.  Her victory over the Kuomintang’s (KMT) mainland-friendly Han Kuo-yu has been seen as a message to Beijing and its growing efforts to isolate Taiwan on economic and diplomatic fronts.  Beijing regards self-governing Taiwan as part of its territory that must eventually be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.

In her victory speech on Saturday, Tsai said Beijing must abandon threats of force against Taiwan. The island would not give in to intimidation, she said.  Hinting that she would not seek to provoke mainland China in the next four years, Tsai said Taiwan wanted to become “partners” with its neighbours, not be an “issue” for them.  She met the de facto ambassadors from the US and Japan in Taipei. 

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              The election campaign was dominated by China’s efforts to get the democratic island to accept Beijing’s rule under a “one country, two systems” model, as well as by anti-government protests in Chinese-ruled Hong Kong.

“No matter what changes there are to the internal situation in Taiwan, the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China will not change,” China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

While China says Taiwan is its territory, Taiwan maintains it is an independent country called the Republic of China, its formal name.  Tsai, who has firmly rejected China’s “one country, two systems” model, won another four-year term by a landslide on Saturday, and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) secured a majority in parliament.  “Taiwan’s people once again use the vote in their hands to show the world the value of democracy,” Tsai said on Sunday when meeting the head of the United States’ de facto embassy in Taipei, Brent Christensen.

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“Democracy and freedom are indeed Taiwan’s most valuable asset and the foundation of the long-term Taiwan-U.S. partnership,” Tsai said, vowing to deepen cooperation with the United States on issues from defense to economy.

On Saturday, Tsai called for talks to resume with China, but said she hoped Beijing understood Taiwan and its people would not submit to intimidation.  However, China will not change its stance on the “one China” principle and oppose Taiwan independence, the Chinese foreign ministry said. “The universal consensus of the international community adhering to the ‘one China’ principle will not change either.”  China hoped the world would support the “just cause” of Chinese people to oppose secessionist activities and “realize national reunification”, it added.

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council said China should respect the election result and stop putting pressure on the island.  “Our government will firmly defend the sovereignty of the Republic of China and Taiwan’s democracy and freedom,” it said.

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Incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) took 58% of Taiwan’s vote against challenger Han Kuo-Yu of the Kuomintang Party (KMT) on Saturday. Tsai, a former law professor with a technocratic reputation, has led Taiwan for the last four years, promoting progressive social policies, such as marriage equality; led the country through unpopular safety net reforms; and has been a notable critic of Beijing, reported Fortune magazine.

China’s official Xinhua news agency said Tsai won by deploying dirty tricks, hyping the China threat and colluding with Western forces.  “Whether it is to curb Taiwan independence secessionist activities or to benefit Taiwan compatriots, the mainland has a full ‘policy toolbox’,” it said.  “Tsai and the DPP must be aware that they should not act wilfully because of a fluke.”

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo congratulated Tsai and lauded her for seeking stability with China “in the face of unrelenting pressure”.  Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi also sent congratulations, referring to Taiwan as a “precious friend”.

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China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said on Saturday it would continue promoting the “one country, two systems” model for Taiwan, which Beijing uses to run Hong Kong with a high degree of autonomy.

Mainland Chinese state media played down Tsai’s win and blamed the KMT’s defeat on “dirty tactics” by her party.  Mainland state news agency Xinhua said the poll was not a “normal election” and that “external dark forces” were partly responsible for the result.

Analysts said Taipei might face greater pressure from Beijing after the election, complicating China’s tense relationship with the United States.

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But the relationships between Beijing, Washington and Taipei would also depend on the outcome of the US presidential election in November and progress in China-US trade talks, they said.

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KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  He attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.

Malaysia’s Succession Struggle 2019:

Economic Slowdown and Instability?

KB Teo

SYNOPSIS

Malaysian politics is engulfed in controversy and uncertainty.  The vicious succession to PM Mahathir within the ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition threatens to worsen. The economy is slowing rapidly and foreign investments have fallen sharply.  Unless the succession issue is quickly resolved, instability threatens.

COMMENTARY

Malaysian politics is currently in turmoil.  In November 2019, factional infighting within the  Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) broke out. The PKR is the second largest component of the ruling multiethnic (PH (Coalition of Hope), led by PM Mahathir Mohamad, 94.  He was Malaysia’s leader from 1981 to 2002, the longest on record. It also includes the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party led by Lim Kit Siang and his son, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng.  The latter has corruption charges pending against him in relation to the purchase of a bungalow in Penang. The prosecution, controlled by the Attorney General, dropped the charges against Lim.

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The PH coalition surprisingly won the May 2018 Malaysian General Elections (GE14), ousting the corrupt Barisan Nasional (BN) administration of Premier Najib Razak.  Najib is implicated in the 1MDB scandal, the largest of its kind in the world. It has debts of USD 11.73 billion. About USD 700 million was reportedly transferred to Najib’s private bank accounts.  The US Justice Department claimed that USD 4.5 billion was stolen from the 1MDB. The BN had ruled Malaysia continuously for 61 years.

In November 2019, Anwar Ibrahim, 72 (leader, PKR), was challenged by his deputy, Azmin Ali, 55.  Azmin is very ambitious. He has the political support of Mahathir. There was apparently a “promise” made by Mahathir to make way for Anwar to become Prime Minister midway through the HP’s term of office.  Reports indicate that Mahathir has since denied making such a promise. Mahathir has deliberately been coy about a power transfer dateline. Anwar has, however, publicly expressed strong confidence that he will become Malaysia’s next leader by June 2020.

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There are, however, clear benefits for Malaysia if Mahathir sets a timeline for the succession.  One, it will stop the political uncertainties in Malaysia, which risk descending into an all-out war.  Two, it will enable Mahathir to focus on fixing the slowing economy.  

In 2019, the economy is expected to grow by only 4.7%.  Manufacturing is slowing rather quickly. The Purchasing Managers’ Index has stayed below 50, signalling contraction.  Since early 2019, the RAM Business Confidence Index has been sluggish. The high cost of living contributed to PH’s defeat in the Pulau Piai by-election.

There are media reports suggesting that Mahathir may have political ambitions for his 54-year old son, Mukhriz.  Najib has also accused Mahathir of seeking to make Muhkriz the next prime minister of Malaysia. The latter’s brother, Mokhanzani, according to Forbes magazine, is reportedly one of Malaysia’s top ten  billionaires. He is among the top ten richest tycoons in Malaysia. Mukhriz is the Menteri Besar (Chief Minister) of the northern Kedah state.   But Mahathir claimed that his sons are rich because of their own efforts.

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The PKR factional infighting already has negative results for the PH coalition.  In June 2019, it lost decisively in the Tanjung Piai by-election back to UMNO. UMNO deputy president Mohamad Hasan voiced concern that PKR leaders continue to quarrel over the prime minister’s post.  

Mohamad Hasan said it was unfortunate that there had been no discussions on urgent economic issues including the ringgit’s drop in value and rising debt.  Billions of ringgit in foreign investment has left Malaysia’s Stock Exchange. Its performance in 2019 is among the worst in the world. The amount of foreign investment which left Malaysia in 2019 was reportedly more than RM10 billion.  The Malaysian economy is evidently slowing.

Anti-corruption promises lay at the heart of Pakatan Harapan’s 2018 election win.  A priority is its pledge to get to the bottom of the 1MDB scandal. As much as USD 4.5 billion went missing.  Jho Low, a financier accused of orchestrating the theft, remains at large. In October 2018 the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Jho had agreed to forfeit nearly USD 1 billion in assets allegedly bought with the fund’s money. Instead, Malaysia’s attention has shifted to former Prime Minister Najib Rasak, who has pleaded not guilty to 42 criminal charges charges ranging from money laundering to abuse of power. 

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The new Mahathir administration faces many political challenges. There are three key issues that the administration must address before the next General Election in 2023. These are the Malay Agenda/Bumiputra Policy; political Islam; and the timeline for transition of power from Mahathir to Anwar Ibrahim.  Mahathir needs to clearly signal that Anwar will be his successor. Only then will the economic slowdown slacken and the political uncertainty subside. Malaysia is clearly distracted by its own domestic political intrigues, to the detriment of economic growth.

On 23 February 2020, Malaysia’s would-be leader, Anwar Ibrahim, accused 94-year-old Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s party and “traitors” in his own camp of plotting a wholesale change in the ruling coalition that could ultimately deny him the premiership.

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Meanwhile, Mahathir has said in recent months that he needs more time for a planned transition, for which he has never set a date.  Forming a new coalition could allow Mahathir to serve out a full term instead of handing over to Anwar as promised. One source with knowledge of the matter said Mahathir had been angry that he came under pressure from pro-Anwar ministers to set a clear timetable for a handover at a meeting of the coalition.

Some Malaysians expressed their anger on social media at the speculation about a new alliance, saying the coalition they voted for to bring in reforms now threatened to betray them by partnering with the political parties they voted out.

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Anwar served as deputy prime minister and finance minister during Mahathir’s first 22-year stint in office under UNMO, but was sacked in 1998 after falling out over how to defend the economy against the Asian financial crisis. Anwar was jailed twice on sodomy charges that he said were politically motivated.  He was released on a royal pardon after the 2018 election. He is a member of parliament but does not hold a ministerial post. His wife is the country’s deputy prime minister.

Feb 24, 2020 ― Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has resigned as prime minister today, after two days of intense speculation that he would lead his political party Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) to exit the ruling coalition Pakatan Harapan and form a new government with new coalition partners.

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PKR has also announced that it had sacked its deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and vice-president Zuraida Kamaruddin, while 11 MPs including the duo separately announced that they had quit PKR and PH to form an independent bloc in Parliament.

Azmin was previously speculated to be planning to lead his faction to join forces with Dr Mahathir’s PPBM and several other parties including Umno and PAS to form a new coalition government.  For the PH coalition to hold on to power or for any new coalition to form a new government, they will need to have at least 112 MPs or a simple majority of the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat to be on their side.

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PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was previously known to be the PM-in-waiting based on a promise and agreement within PH’s leadership for him to take on the baton after Dr Mahathir, but a source has told Malay Mail that Anwar’s wife and Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail would be the interim prime minister.

Malaysian politics is in turmoil.  The King (Agong) appointed Mahathir to be the interim PM.

1 March 2020. Malaysia’s Muhyiddin Yassin was sworn in as prime minister by the king, after a week of political chaos sparked by the resignation of veteran leader Mahathir Mohamad.  The 72-year-old Muhyiddin, interior minister in the government that collapsed last Monday, becomes the Southeast Asian nation’s eighth premier.

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Mahathir, who was the world’s oldest leader, initially quit as premier but then sought to return.  He lost in a power struggle, however, to little-known Muhyiddin Yassin, who heads a coalition dominated by the multi-ethnic country’s Muslim majority and has faced criticism for controversial remarks about race, reported Yahoo news.

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KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  He attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.

Zheng Yixin