More Trust or Hegemony?

China’s Grand Strategy under Xi Jinping:

More Trust or Hegemony?

KB Teo

SYNOPSIS

Beijing has a comprehensive and well-planned strategy to boost its global influence and power. It seeks to regain China’s traditional place in the world as a Great Power. This is encapsulated in President Xi Jinping’s “China Dream”.

COMMENTARY

The backdrop to understanding modern Chinese foreign policy is the “Century of Humiliation” (1839-1949). The Chinese Communist Party is acutely aware of the consequences of national economic, technological, and military weakness. Beijing is determined that this humiliation will never happen again.

Foreign Policy 1950-2011

China decided to enter the Korean War (1950-1953). Beijing’s entry was against the American Containment Policy. Washington established an encirclement strategy against Mao Zedong’s new China. Japan and South Korea are US security allies. The China-India border war of October 1962 took place over their conflicting territorial claims. China has a longstanding friendship treaty with Pakistan. In October 2019, President Xi held a summit with PM Modi. From Beijing’s viewpoint, better Sino-Indian ties would protect Beijing’s vulnerable South Asian flank against the US.

The China-Vietnam border war of 1978-1979. A newly reunified Vietnam saw itself as the “Prussia of Southeast Asia”. Deng Xiaoping’s China, however, saw Vietnam as a Soviet proxy seeking to take over control of the entire Indochinese peninsula. Deng Xiaoping’s 1980 economic reforms and opening up was followed by three decades of growth, the fastest in the world. It transformed China into the world’s second-largest economy. Then came the setback of the June 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.

The American political scientist John Mearsheimer argues that China cannot rise peacefully. This is because great powers have always sought hegemony. Harvard University’s Graham Allison asked whether China and America can escape the Thucydides’ Trap? Robert Zoellick wondered whether China can be a “responsible stakeholder”. Robert Kuhn expects China to sustain a high growth rate of about 6% compared with the West’s 2%.

Xi Jinping’s era (2012 till now)

President Xi Jinping’s “China Dream” calls for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. He aims to restore China as a Great Power with a moderately high-income status by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. Xi’s ambitious projects are the global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Many states, including Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, have signed up for these projects.

The North Korean nuclear issue. It is in China’s backyard. During the Korean War, an estimated 200,000 Chinese soldiers were killed. Beijing and Pyongyang are synchronizing their positions. Over the past two decades, South Korea has been boosting trade and economic ties with China. This is a considerable help for Seoul in the ROK’s latest tensions with Japan over the wartime “comfort women” compensation issue.

Japan. Despite historical issues like Imperial Japan’s invasion and atrocities against China in World War Two, personal ties between PM Shinzo Abe and President Xi are improving. They met at the June 2019 Osaka G20 Summit. President Xi is scheduled to visit Tokyo in 2020 to boost bilateral ties.

Russia. Over the past five years, there has been a conspicuous strengthening of their strategic partnership. Personal ties between President Putin and Xi are strong. But China and Russia are not in a military alliance.

Taiwan. Beijing’s consistent position is that Taiwan is a renegade province. It must return to the “motherland”, by force if necessary. Beijing adheres to the “1992 Consensus” that there is only one China and that Taiwan is a part of the People’s Republic. But President Tsai Ing-wen rejects the “1992 Consensus”. Beijing has ostracized her. As a result, the China-Taiwan trade relationship has plummeted.

Hong Kong crisis 2019. Beijing adheres to Deng Xiaoping’s “One Country, Two Systems” model. In 2017, President Xi warned that China would not tolerate separatism. Beijing sees Hong Kong as an integral part of China. This tough approach will not change.

ASEAN-China economic and military relations are surging. In October 2019, they agreed on a landmark Code of Conduct for the South China Sea.

Western Europe. China has warming ties with Italy, which has signed up for the BRI project. It enjoys cordial and mutually beneficial ties with France and Germany. President Macron has just visited China where he held talks with President Xi. Bilateral trade topped the agenda.

North America. China-US Relations. President Trump successfully visited Beijing in 2017. The trade war is a proxy for their global strategic rivalry for influence and dominance.

Xi-Modi October 2019 Summit. Bolstered bilateral economic and military ties. Strengthened Beijing’s South Asia flank. It marked the start of a new “Chindia” era of cooperation and prosperity. Beijing is a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. China has longstanding ties with Pakistan.

Tibet and Xinjiang. China is actively promoting growth and development in these two restive provinces of ethnic minorities.

ASEAN has a growing trade and military relationship with China.

Africa. China has established a military base in Djibouti. This is China’s first military base in Africa.

The Middle East. Beijing supports the “two-state solution”. Israel and a sovereign Palestinian state. It is building a robust economic and military relationship with Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil producer and exporter.

China is rapidly improving ties with Central America and South America

Although the Arctic Ocean is 8,000 km away from Beijing, it has attracted China’s interest. The Arctic has vast mineral (oil and gas) resources. Beijing’s keen interest highlights China’s global ambitions.

Antarctica. Like many Western states, China has established a scientific research base.

Reactions

The reactions to China’s rise vary from region to region. Generally, most Asian states welcome China’s rise. They see it as an opportunity to boost mutually-beneficial trade relations. Generally, the Anglo-Saxon states are warier. African and the Middle East states are strongly supportive. Central and South American states are becoming more positive, with more switching diplomatic recognition to Beijing.

Conclusion

Beijing should be, as pointed out by Paul Kennedy, careful of “imperial overreach”. China continues to implement an active ambitious foreign policy to at least dominate Asia, its backyard. Overall, China’s grand strategy has generated greater trust in its relations with the world, except the Anglo-Saxon states.

—————————————————————————————————

KB TEO is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He covered Southeast Asia, Egypt, and Eastern Europe/Soviet desks. He attended the UN General Assembly session as part of the MFA delegation.