Daily Archives: November 28, 2019

ASEAN: Towards a Security Community? KB Teo SYNOPSIS The EU is the only regional organisation to develop into a Security Community. ASEAN is steadily growing into one. To achieve regional political integration, ASEAN’s strategy is to promote strong economic growth and actively engage all the Great Powers. COMMENTARY Sixteen years ago, ASEAN declared its goal of establishing a regional Security Community. The American political scientist Karl Deutsch defined a Security Community as one in which the members do not wage war against one another. In August 1967, ASEAN was established to promote regional stability and prosperity. Deutsch’s idea of a “Security Community” was adopted by Indonesia. Jakarta’s proposal for an “ASEAN Security Community” was incorporated in the 2003 Bali Concord II Declaration. How successful has ASEAN been in achieving this goal? ASEAN is steadily growing into a Security Community. There are two main reasons. One, ASEAN’s focus on maintaining internal unity and promoting growth. Two, ASEAN uses various dialogue mechanisms to actively engage the Great Powers. This method enhances ASEAN’s ability to shape the regional security landscape and its importance and relevance to the Great Powers. 1 Unity and Growth ASEAN leaders see themselves as the main actors in shaping regional security, not the external Great Powers. They follow the adage “Southeast Asia for Southeast Asians”. It is called “ASEAN Centrality”. ASEAN’s 650 million consumers make it very attractive for foreign investment. The EU has the advantages of a common Christianity, the English language, and contiguous borders. In contrast, ASEAN is very diverse in terms of race, language, religion, and different levels of economic development and wealth. The ASEAN states are also separated by wide bodies of waters. This makes regional political integration relatively more difficult. Today, there is little chance of an intra-ASEAN war. In December 1978, Vietnam invaded Cambodia to oust the genocidal Pol Pot regime. Forty years have passed. There have been no wars in Southeast Asia. ASEAN is continuing to enjoy its “long peace”. War is seen by the ASEAN elites as obsolete and a sun-set industry. Its leaders have repeatedly stated that their main goal is boosting intra-ASEAN trade and increase employment and growth. Regional integration requires shared values and norms to facilitate win-win cooperation. Unlike Western Europe, Southeast Asia before 1967 had very little sense of common bonding. The very idea of “Southeast Asia” itself is quite recent. Southeast Asia was disparate, unstable, and poor. It was susceptible to many intra-regional political and military conflicts. Stability and Growth Over the next decade, the ASEAN economies are projected to grow at 4.1% annually. The region’s GDP would double to US$5 trillion. This would represent 5% of global GDP, an admirable achievement for a grouping of small and medium-sized states. 2 At the June 2019 34th ASEAN Summit in Bangkok, PM Mahathir raised the issue of sluggish intra-ASEAN trade. It forms only 25% of their global trade compared with 50% for the EU and North America. Between 2002 and 2017, intra-ASEAN trade increased by only 2%. The pathway to boost intra-ASEAN trade is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). ASEAN would be signing the RCEP in 2020, minus India, to boost intra-ASEAN and Indo-Pacific trade. Defensive Military Modernisation Over the past decade, ASEAN has been boosting its military capabilities amid the escalating China-US strategic rivalry. The ASEAN states want to develop strong local defence industries. ASEAN has repeatedly stated it does not want to choose sides. It wants cordial and profitable relations with both superpowers. Cambodia is strengthening its military power with support from China. The Royal Thai Navy has bought submarines from China. Beijing has sold sophisticated weaponry to the Philippines. President Duterte is revamping Philippine foreign policy to forge closer financial and economic ties with Beijing. Duterte has shown a keen interest in President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Infrastructure initiative. Beijing is rapidly making strong inroads in establishing strong ties with the ASEAN states. China and ASEAN are collaborating closely on a peaceful Code of Conduct on the South China Sea, where there are rival claimants. In the last few years, ASEAN’s military spending has doubled. The reasons include financial self-sufficiency, expansion of capabilities, and the growth of local defence industries. ASEAN is responding to threats like terrorism, piracy, and cybersecurity. Not surprisingly, ASEAN’s investment in developing air and naval power has risen. 3 Indonesia faces the internal challenges of terrorism and religious violence. Over the past decade, Indonesia’s and Thailand’s military budget has risen by 10% annually. Vietnam’s arms import surged seven-fold. Since 2016, Thailand has focussed on buying advanced weaponry to counter the Muslim insurgency in its three southern provinces. The Philippines has bought new powerful weaponry from China. Myanmar, faced with the Muslim Rohingya issue, has also embarked on an arms buildup. Malaysia and Singapore are defence partners in the Five Power Defence Arrangement. They conduct an annual military exercise called “Exercise Bersama Lima”. Engagement with Great Powers ASEAN engages the Great Powers through its dialogue mechanisms like the ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN Plus Three, ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meetings, Dialogue Partners’ process, and the East Asia Summit. These mechanisms strengthen ASEAN-Great Power relations. After fifty-two years, ASEAN remains vibrant. There is virtually no chance of the ASEAN states waging war against each other. They focus on maintaining internal stability and promoting economic growth. ASEAN’s remarkable growth has been aptly termed by Kishore Mahbubani and Jeffery Sng as a “miracle”. ASEAN’s military modernisation is basically defensive. ASEAN actively engages the Great Powers to enhance its relevance. An ASEAN Security Community matters for a stable and prosperous Southeast Asia. ———————————————— KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore MFA who had covered Southeast Asia, Egypt, as well as the East Europe/Soviet desks. He had also attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.

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